Trump stays silent as Ken Paxton overtakes John Cornyn in Texas runoff battle that could reshape the Republican Party’s future while James Talarico polls ahead in general election matchups

Texas – The Texas Senate race has become one of the fiercest Republican battles in the country, with President Donald Trump’s refusal to endorse either candidate turning an already tense runoff into a drawn-out political war. What once looked like a possible quick consolidation behind either Sen. John Cornyn or Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has instead transformed into a bitter and unpredictable showdown that is exposing deep divisions inside the Republican Party.

Trump initially hinted he would step into the race soon after both candidates advanced to a runoff. At the time, he suggested he might endorse one candidate and encourage the other to step aside “for the good of the Party.” But months later, no endorsement has come, the candidate withdrawal deadline has already passed, and both Republicans are now locked into a costly and increasingly hostile battle heading toward the May runoff election.

That uncertainty has reshaped the race itself. Without Trump clearing the field, both campaigns have continued attacking one another while outside groups flood Texas with money, ads, and competing messages aimed at conservative voters.

Now, new polling suggests Paxton may be gaining the upper hand.

According to a new survey from the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston, Paxton leads Cornyn among likely runoff voters by a narrow margin. The poll found 48 percent supporting Paxton compared to 45 percent backing Cornyn, while 7 percent of voters remained undecided.

The numbers underline just how competitive the race has become despite Cornyn’s long history in statewide office and establishment support inside Republican politics.

Paxton gains momentum while Trump stays on the sidelines

The latest polling marks another sign that Paxton’s campaign may be building momentum at the right time.

During the original Republican primary, Cornyn narrowly finished ahead of Paxton. But now, with the runoff approaching and Trump remaining silent, Paxton appears to be benefiting from a more consolidated conservative base.

The University of Houston survey showed Paxton leading among both male and female voters. Among men, 49 percent backed Paxton while 46 percent supported Cornyn. Among women, Paxton held a smaller advantage, leading 47 percent to 45 percent. A small percentage of voters in both groups still remain undecided, leaving room for movement in the final stretch of the campaign.

Political observers say Trump’s absence from the race may have unintentionally strengthened Paxton’s position. The attorney general has spent years building strong support among grassroots conservatives, while Cornyn has increasingly been viewed by some Republican voters as part of the party establishment.

At the same time, Trump’s hesitation has frustrated many Republicans hoping for a clear direction before the runoff intensified further. Instead, both campaigns have continued escalating attacks against each other while spending millions trying to shape the narrative.

The runoff is expected to become one of the most expensive Senate contests in Texas history, with both candidates preparing for an all-out battle over conservative voters, donor support, and turnout operations.

Democrats see opportunity as Talarico gains ground

While Republicans remain locked in their internal fight, Democrats are quietly becoming more optimistic about their own chances in November.

Recent polling suggests Democratic nominee James Talarico is performing surprisingly well against both Republican candidates in hypothetical general election matchups.

A Texas Public Opinion Research survey found likely voters supporting Talarico over Cornyn by a margin of 44 percent to 41 percent. The same poll showed Talarico leading Paxton even more comfortably, 46 percent to 41 percent.

Those numbers have raised concern among some Republicans who fear the prolonged runoff could damage the eventual nominee before the general election even begins.

Texas has long been considered a Republican stronghold, with Democrats failing to win statewide races for decades. But shifting voter patterns, suburban frustration, and rising turnout among younger and independent voters have made some races more competitive in recent years.

Talarico’s growing numbers are also adding pressure to Republicans already worried about maintaining control of Congress during the midterms. National Democrats believe Texas could become one of the biggest political surprises of the election cycle if Republican infighting continues deep into the summer.

The University of Houston poll itself reflected how close and volatile the race remains. Conducted between April 28 and May 1, the survey included 1,200 respondents and carried a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.

That means the runoff remains statistically tight despite Paxton’s current edge.

Still, perception matters in politics, and right now momentum appears to be moving in Paxton’s direction while Cornyn fights to hold onto his seat.

Meanwhile, Trump’s continued silence hangs over the race like a shadow neither campaign can fully escape. His endorsement could still reshape the runoff overnight if it comes late. But with voting approaching quickly, both candidates are increasingly preparing for the possibility that no rescue is coming.

What began as a standard Republican primary has now become a test of where the Texas GOP — and perhaps the national Republican Party itself — is headed next.