Ken Paxton’s unfavorable ratings spark concern inside GOP circles as new numbers suggest James Talarico running even in deep-red Texas

Texas – What was expected to be a comfortable Republican path to another Senate seat is suddenly looking far more competitive. A new Texas poll has revealed a surprisingly tight contest between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, raising fresh questions about whether Paxton’s political baggage could create problems for Republicans in a state that has long been considered a GOP stronghold.

The survey, conducted by Texas A&M University’s Bush School of Government & Public Service alongside ReconMR, found both candidates sitting at 46 percent support among likely voters. While the margin of error means either candidate could technically be ahead, the result alone is enough to grab attention in a state that President Donald Trump carried by double-digit margins.

The findings arrive only days after Paxton secured a major primary victory over longtime Republican Sen. John Cornyn. Trump’s endorsement played a significant role in that outcome, helping Paxton defeat the four-term senator and become the Republican nominee. At the time, many Republicans celebrated the result as proof of Trump’s continued influence within the party.

Now, however, the general election picture appears far less certain.

Paxton’s image remains a major challenge

The biggest warning sign for Republicans may not be the horse-race numbers themselves but rather how voters view Paxton personally.

According to the poll, 54 percent of Texans hold an unfavorable opinion of the attorney general, while only 34 percent view him favorably. Even within his own party, there are signs of concern. Nearly one-quarter of Republicans surveyed said they have an unfavorable view of Paxton.

Those figures stand in sharp contrast to Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, who continues to enjoy much stronger support among voters. The survey found that 45 percent of Texans view Abbott favorably, including an overwhelming majority of Republicans.

The numbers may reinforce concerns that Cornyn repeatedly raised during the Republican primary. Before losing his nomination battle, the senator warned that Paxton’s history of controversies could become a liability in a statewide race.

That history is extensive. Paxton was impeached by the Texas House before ultimately being acquitted by the state Senate. He has also faced years of legal scrutiny, including a previous federal indictment. In addition, he remains involved in a highly publicized divorce tied to allegations of infidelity. His political profile expanded nationally when he filed a lawsuit seeking to overturn the 2020 election results in several states won by Joe Biden.

Adding to Republican unease, one of the people who previously defended Paxton has now crossed party lines.

On Monday, Dan Cogdell, the attorney who represented Paxton during his impeachment proceedings, endorsed Talarico, handing Democrats an unexpected political boost.

Democrats see an opportunity

For years, Democrats have searched for a path toward winning statewide office in Texas. While the challenge remains enormous, the latest poll has fueled hopes that this race could become competitive enough to attract national attention and additional resources.

Talarico’s own image numbers suggest he remains less defined than Paxton in the minds of many voters. The poll found that 41 percent of Texans view him favorably, while 34 percent hold an unfavorable opinion. Another 25 percent either have no opinion or are unfamiliar with him.

That lack of familiarity could give both parties room to shape perceptions over the coming months.

National Democrats already appear interested. Leadership political action committees connected to several Democratic senators, including Ruben Gallego, Mark Kelly, Martin Heinrich and Cory Booker, have each contributed $5,000 to Talarico’s campaign.

Culture-war attacks begin to intensify

Republicans are not waiting to define their opponent.

Paxton and his allies have increasingly focused on comments Talarico has made on social and cultural issues. One frequently cited example comes from remarks he made to the Texas Humane Legislation Network, where he said, “it is now existential that we try to reduce our meat consumption” and described his 2022 reelection effort as a “non-meat campaign.”

Those comments led Paxton to brand him “Tofu Talarico” while portraying him as a vegan.

Talarico quickly pushed back, responding, “I’ve been eating barbecue since Ken Paxton’s first indictment.”

Republicans have also highlighted previous remarks in which Talarico said, “God is non-binary” while defending transgender individuals during legislative debates. Critics have additionally pointed to statements he made regarding the existence of at least six sexes.

The issue of transgender policies is already emerging as a major campaign battleground. A report from The Daily Caller stated that Citizens for Sanity, a group aligned with Trump, released an AI-generated video portraying Talarico as Julie Andrews from The Sound of Music singing about providing gender-affirming care to transgender youth to the tune of “My Favorite Things.”

Yet Talarico has attempted to draw distinctions on the issue. During a podcast interview with Cogdell, he stated that he opposed “gender reassignment surgeries for minors.”

A race that suddenly looks competitive

The poll was conducted between June 1 and June 4 among 804 likely Texas voters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

While Republicans still hold significant advantages in Texas, the survey suggests that Paxton’s personal standing may be creating openings that many Democrats thought were impossible just months ago.

Whether those openings remain by Election Day is another question entirely. Texas remains one of the most Republican states in the country at the presidential level, and Democrats have repeatedly fallen short in previous attempts to break through.

Still, a tied race immediately after a hard-fought Republican primary is not the position many GOP strategists expected to see. For Republicans, the coming months may become less about defending conservative policies and more about convincing voters that Paxton’s controversies belong in the past. For Democrats, the challenge will be turning a surprising poll into a lasting movement capable of competing in a state where victories have been rare.

One thing is clear: what once looked like a predictable Senate race is suddenly attracting far more attention than either party anticipated.