Texas Senate race enters turbulent phase as Paxton gains key endorsements while his “toughest” opponent’s campaign is clouded by FEC inquiry

Texas – A fierce and unpredictable battle is taking shape in Texas, where the Republican Senate runoff has entered a volatile new stage. Momentum, money, and mounting scrutiny are colliding at once, turning what was already a tight race into a deeply fractured contest with no clear outcome in sight.

Attorney General Ken Paxton appears to be gaining ground at a critical moment. His campaign has picked up fresh support, most notably from Rep. Burgess Owens, a former NFL player with deep family ties to Texas. Owens framed his endorsement as part of a broader story about the state’s history, saying, “He was later able to purchase 102 acres of farmland and build his American dream,” before adding that “Texas has long been a safe haven for those seeking freedom.”

He went further, drawing a direct link between that legacy and Paxton’s candidacy. “Ken Paxton has embodied that legacy as attorney general. Now, we need him in the Senate.” His message sharpened into a political warning as well, stating, “The radical-left has had their sights set on Texas for too long, and we need bold leadership to ensure that doesn’t happen. I’m proud to join many of my colleagues in endorsing Ken Paxton for United States Senate.”

This endorsement adds to a growing list of backers for Paxton, including the Conservative Political Action Conference and Rep. Brandon Gill. At the same time, Sen. John Cornyn is not without support, backed by several Texas Republicans in Congress. Still, the momentum in recent weeks appears to be shifting.

Trump’s Silence Fuels Uncertainty

Hovering over the entire race is one major unknown: President Donald Trump. His decision—or lack of one—has become one of the most powerful forces shaping the contest.

Shortly after the March 3 primary, Trump promised he would endorse a candidate “soon” and even suggested that the person he did not support should “immediately DROP OUT OF THE RACE!” Yet weeks later, that endorsement has not come.

Instead, Trump has turned his attention toward the Democratic challenger, James Talarico, at one point writing, “I believe that any human being running against him, sick, incompetent, close to death or even a child, would win,” and adding, “He may be the Worst candidate I have ever seen.”

That shift has left both Republican campaigns locked in a tense waiting game. Without a clear signal, neither side has been able to fully consolidate support, stretching the race into a prolonged and increasingly bitter fight.

Political observers say the impact is undeniable. “Trump not endorsing at this point has had an impact,” said consultant John Wittman. “And so, the reality is that this is still a very close race. Paxton is probably the favorite right now, but this is absolutely a winnable race for John Cornyn.”

Momentum, Money, and a Growing Divide

Polling suggests Paxton may have a slight edge heading into the May 26 runoff. One survey placed him ahead 48.8% to 41.3%, while another showed a narrower margin. Still, a significant portion of voters remains undecided, leaving the final outcome uncertain.

At the same time, the financial battle is intensifying. The primary race already broke records, becoming the most expensive Senate primary in U.S. history for a single state, with more than $100 million spent.

Cornyn’s campaign has responded with a surge in fundraising. He brought in nearly $9 million in just three months, with $3.4 million arriving in the weeks immediately after the primary. His campaign manager described it as a “massive fundraising haul,” while also drawing a sharp contrast with his opponent, stating, “Sen. Cornyn is our strongest nominee, he is one of President Trump’s most effective legislative partners, and our voters will fully understand the choice in this runoff election over the next seven week,” and warning, “A disastrous nominee like Ken Paxton risks our strong Texas House majority and numerous congressional seats.”

Outside groups are also stepping in. Pro-Cornyn organizations have launched new attack ads, while pro-Paxton efforts are targeting key audiences, including messaging aimed directly at Trump himself.

As one strategist put it, voters will “see a lot more spending” as the race heats up. He added, “The problem is, for Paxton, now that it’s mano a mano, we get to focus on him.”

Paxton, however, remains confident. Speaking publicly, he said he was “optimistic” and pointed to voter data he believes works in his favor. “We had six other people in the race — they took 18%,” he explained. “That 18%, we’ve done the analytics, more of them go to me than they do to John Cornyn. And finally, we’re gonna raise more money this time. He’s not going to outspend me 20 to 1.”

FEC Inquiry Adds Pressure to Cornyn Campaign

While Paxton builds support, Cornyn’s campaign is dealing with a new layer of scrutiny. A political committee tied to his campaign is now under review by the Federal Election Commission.

The issue centers on a missing disclosure involving “one or more” contributions, including a $5,000 donation that was not properly reported. The committee has been asked to respond by May 6, with officials warning that failure to do so could “result in an enforcement action against the committee.”

Although such inquiries are not uncommon, the timing is significant. In a race this tight, even minor questions can become major talking points.

The situation also carries a degree of irony. Cornyn previously highlighted similar financial concerns involving Paxton, pointing to earlier investigations into his opponent’s campaign finances.

A Race With No Clear Endgame

As the runoff approaches, the contest is becoming more intense by the day. Both candidates are not only battling each other but also navigating uncertainty, outside pressure, and shifting voter sentiment.

Even within the Republican Party, concerns are emerging about the long-term impact of the fight. “I have concerns about the general election,” said Sen. Ted Cruz. “Regardless of who wins the nomination, the two candidates have attacked each other relentlessly, and the hard left is really energized.”

With millions of dollars pouring in, endorsements stacking up, and Trump still holding his decision close, the Texas Senate race has transformed into a high-stakes political struggle. What happens next may not only decide a nominee—but could shape the balance of power far beyond the state itself.