A key group that helped power Trump’s 2024 comeback may now decide whether Republicans suffer a stunning upset in Texas

Texas – President Donald Trump scored another major political victory when Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated longtime Senator John Cornyn in the Republican Senate primary. The win reinforced Trump’s influence within the GOP and once again demonstrated the power of his endorsement among Republican voters. Yet even as Republicans celebrate removing a four-term incumbent, a growing number of political observers believe the general election could be far more difficult than expected.

At the center of that concern is one voting bloc that helped fuel Trump’s strong performance in 2024 but now appears increasingly unsettled: Hispanic voters.

Texas has remained a Republican stronghold for decades, and the idea of Democrats winning a statewide Senate race would have seemed unlikely not long ago. However, Paxton’s controversial political history, combined with shifting voter attitudes, has created a situation that both parties are watching closely ahead of November.

According to recent reporting, the race between Paxton and Democratic nominee James Talarico may ultimately come down to Latino voters.

As per reports, “[The] outcome of Paxton’s November matchup with Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico could hinge on Hispanic voters, who moved sharply toward Republicans during Trump’s 2024 campaign but have recently shown signs of drifting back toward Democrats in the polls.”

The voters both parties are chasing

For years, Democrats relied heavily on Latino voters as one of their most dependable constituencies. That began to change during Trump’s political rise.

Nationally, Trump’s support among Latino voters increased from 28 percent in 2016 to 32 percent in 2020 before climbing to 46 percent in 2024.

The movement in Texas was even more dramatic. Trump won 34 percent of Latino voters in the state in 2016, improved to 41 percent in 2020, and reached 55 percent in 2024 — the strongest performance by a Republican presidential candidate among Texas Latinos in modern history.

Those gains helped Republicans strengthen their position in areas that Democrats once considered reliable.

Now, however, new surveys suggest some of that support may be slipping away.

A Pew Research Center survey found Trump’s approval rating among Latinos who voted for him in 2024 has fallen significantly since the beginning of his second term. The same research also found his overall approval among Latino voters has dropped sharply, encouraging Democrats who hope to reclaim lost ground.

Political scientist Brandon Rottinghaus believes the importance of the voting bloc cannot be overstated. “The Latino vote is the biggest swing vote in Texas, so whoever wins them in big numbers is going to be victorious,” he said.

He also noted that Democrats have historically depended on winning a majority of Latino voters to remain competitive statewide. “Democrats are used to getting between 50 and 60 percent of the Latino vote,” Rottinghaus said. “That’s been good enough to keep them competitive, but Republicans have made inroads in some areas, and that’s given the Democrats a serious heartburn.”

Still, he believes momentum may be shifting again. “The numbers are swinging back, so current polling has Democrats rebounding in the Latino community and recovering some of the losses that happened in 2024.”

Economic concerns reshape the race

Many analysts believe economic frustration is playing a major role in changing voter attitudes.

Recent polling suggests many Hispanic voters are increasingly worried about affordability and the overall direction of the economy. Cost of living concerns consistently rank above many other political issues.

Election analyst Eric Cunningham believes that dissatisfaction could make the Texas Senate contest far more competitive than many Republicans expected. “Voters are very unhappy about the economy. I would be shocked if it’s not close,” Cunningham said.

Democrats are expected to devote significant attention to South Texas, where large Hispanic populations helped fuel Republican gains in recent elections.

Cunningham argued that reclaiming those communities will be essential if Talarico hopes to pull off an upset. “I don’t think there’s any scenario where James Talarico wins where he doesn’t win back those counties in South Texas.” “It’s kind of essential,” he added.

Signs of buyer’s remorse

Additional evidence of shifting attitudes emerged from a recent UnidosUS survey.

The poll found that one in four Hispanic voters who supported Trump in 2024 now say they would not make the same choice again.

The findings have fueled discussion about possible “buyer’s remorse” among some voters who helped power Trump’s gains last election cycle.

The survey also found Latino voters favoring Democratic congressional candidates by a substantial margin heading into the midterms.

Meanwhile, Texas-specific results painted an especially troubling picture for Republicans. According to the poll, Trump’s disapproval among Texas Latinos has climbed to 67 percent, while Democrats hold a wide lead on a generic congressional ballot.

Axios summarized the challenge facing Republicans by noting that these voters remain “highly movable,” creating uncertainty in districts and statewide races where Latino turnout can prove decisive. “The erosion of Latino support for President Trump, combined with dissatisfaction with the economy, signals danger for competitive GOP-held seats in the 2026 midterm elections,” Axios explained.

A race with national implications

Democrats are increasingly optimistic that Paxton’s nomination gives them an opportunity they have not seen in years. The attorney general enters the race carrying years of political baggage, including legal battles, impeachment proceedings, and multiple controversies that opponents are expected to highlight throughout the campaign.

Supporters argue that Paxton’s popularity with conservative voters will outweigh those concerns. Critics believe independent voters and moderate Republicans may be less forgiving.

For Democrats, the path to victory almost certainly runs through Hispanic communities stretching from El Paso to the Rio Grande Valley and beyond. “If the Latinos vote, collectively, to the tune of 70 to 75 percent for Talarico, then this will be a very close race,” Rottinghaus said. “That number has been challenging to get for Democrats, but in the modern moment, with a sour economy and an unpopular president in office, it’s possible that they can reach that number.”

Whether Republicans can hold the seat or Democrats can engineer a historic breakthrough may ultimately depend on the same voters who helped reshape Texas politics in 2024. What once looked like another safe Republican Senate race is increasingly becoming one of the most closely watched contests of the 2026 election cycle.