Could Texas really elect a Democrat to the Senate? New poll shows James Talarico leading Ken Paxton in surprise result

Texas – A new poll is giving Texas Democrats a reason to believe a Senate seat that has been in Republican hands for more than three decades may suddenly be competitive.

Just days after Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton secured the Republican nomination by defeating longtime Senator John Cornyn in a decisive runoff, fresh polling suggests the general election may be far more difficult than many Republicans expected. According to a survey conducted by Texas Public Opinion Research, Democratic state Representative James Talarico currently holds a narrow lead over Paxton in the race to become Texas’ next U.S. senator.

The results are drawing attention because Texas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since Bob Krueger briefly held the seat in 1993. For years, Republicans have maintained a strong grip on statewide elections, making any Democratic lead in a Senate race noteworthy.

The survey, conducted between May 27 and May 28 among 1,670 likely general election voters, found Talarico ahead by a small margin. Depending on the measurement used, the Democrat received either 47% support compared to Paxton’s 44% or a similar 47% to 43% advantage. The poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

While the lead is not large, the findings reveal several warning signs for Republicans.

Trouble among Republican voters

Perhaps the most surprising result was Paxton’s difficulty winning over some voters who supported Cornyn during the Republican runoff.

According to the survey, nearly one-third of Cornyn voters now say they intend to support Talarico in November.

The poll found that almost one in three Cornyn supporters “say that they would vote for Talarico, while 44% would vote for Paxton — 23% remain undecided or say that they will not vote.”

For Republicans hoping Paxton’s primary victory would quickly unite the party, those numbers are concerning.

Even more striking is why some of those voters are moving away from the Republican nominee.

Among former Cornyn supporters planning to back Talarico, the poll found that “More than half … cite Paxton’s criminality or corruption as their primary reason.”

Paxton has faced numerous controversies throughout his political career. He was indicted in 2015 on securities fraud charges, though that case was ultimately dismissed in 2024. He was also impeached by the Texas House in 2023 before later being acquitted by the Texas Senate. Additional personal controversies have followed him throughout his years in office.

Interestingly, many voters crossing party lines are not necessarily enthusiastic about Talarico himself.

Only a small percentage cited positive reasons for supporting the Democratic candidate. Others described their support as reluctant, saying they viewed Talarico as the only acceptable alternative. Some specifically pointed to Paxton’s close relationship with President Donald Trump, while others expressed broader dissatisfaction with the Republican Party.

Independents and moderates tilt toward Talarico

The survey also suggests Talarico is performing especially well with key groups that often decide close elections.

Moderate voters favored him overwhelmingly, while independent voters also broke strongly in his direction. Those groups helped push the Democrat into the lead despite Texas’ Republican advantage in statewide politics.

The poll found that Talarico currently enjoys a higher favorability rating than Paxton. While 47% of Texans view Talarico positively, only 38% hold a favorable view of Paxton.

According to the survey, Paxton ranked as the second most unpopular major political figure tested, trailing only Cornyn.

President Trump, meanwhile, received a 48% approval rating among Texans.

Latino voters could play a major role

The poll arrives just days after another survey suggested Talarico may be making significant gains among Latino voters, one of the most important voting groups in the state.

That earlier poll found Talarico leading among Latino voters by an impressive 27-point margin. The result caught the attention of election observers. “If the actual result of the Texas Senate race among Latinos ends up anywhere close to this, Paxton is cooked,” election analyst G. Elliott Morris said.

Whether that level of support holds remains to be seen, but the findings have added to concerns within Republican circles about the race’s direction.

Cost of living dominates voter concerns

The survey also provided insight into what issues matter most to Texas voters heading into November.

Affordability and the rising cost of living ranked as the top concern by a wide margin. Nearly one-quarter of voters identified it as their biggest issue, more than double any other topic measured.

Democracy and voting rights followed, along with immigration, healthcare access, and economic growth. Those priorities could shape the campaign in the months ahead as both candidates attempt to persuade undecided voters.

For Republicans, the challenge now extends beyond simply holding a traditionally red seat. Party strategists are increasingly worried that defending Texas could require enormous financial resources. Even if Paxton ultimately wins, a highly competitive race could force Republicans to spend hundreds of millions of dollars that might otherwise be used in other battleground states.

With months remaining before Election Day, much can change. But for now, a race that many assumed would safely remain in Republican hands suddenly looks far more competitive than expected.