Ted Cruz may still be eyeing the presidency, but new Republican polling suggests JD Vance and Marco Rubio are dominating the 2028 conversation

Texas – The Republican Party’s 2028 presidential race is still years away, but early maneuvering and fresh polling are already fueling discussion about who could eventually compete to succeed President Donald Trump. While Sen. Ted Cruz has not officially announced another White House campaign, recent comments from fellow Texas Sen. John Cornyn have added new momentum to speculation that Cruz still hopes to return to the national stage.

At the same time, early surveys suggest that if a Republican primary were held today, Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio would begin the race from a much stronger position than the Texas senator.

Cornyn raised eyebrows during an interview when he was asked about potential Republican contenders. Rather than naming a preferred successor, he joked that he did not want to “jinx” either Vance or Rubio. But when the conversation shifted to Cruz, Cornyn offered a much more revealing response. “Don’t tell Ted Cruz that, because Ted wants to be the next president,” Cornyn said.

Although Cruz has made no formal announcement about seeking the presidency again, Cornyn’s remark immediately renewed speculation about the senator’s long-term political plans. Cruz remains one of the Republican Party’s most recognizable conservative figures after his 2016 presidential campaign and years of national television appearances, Senate battles and high-profile political debates.

Early signs point to another national campaign

Reports earlier this year suggested Cruz has already been laying groundwork that could support another White House bid.

According to reports, Cruz has worked to present himself as a conservative alternative to Vance, who is widely viewed as the leading political heir to Trump’s MAGA movement. The report noted that Cruz has stayed highly visible by engaging in public disagreements with conservative personalities, including Tucker Carlson, while also expanding his reach through his podcast, “Verdict with Ted Cruz.”

The report also said Cruz continues to maintain close relationships with conservative donors and activists who could become important if he eventually launches another presidential campaign.

Cornyn’s comments also came after a politically awkward chapter between the two Texas Republicans. During Cornyn’s unsuccessful Republican primary campaign, Cruz declined to endorse his longtime Senate colleague.

Despite that decision, Cornyn insisted he holds no grudge. “Ted’s entitled to make his own choices. I’m not bitter,” Cornyn said.

He also reflected on the realities of political competition. “People in politics are very competitive. … And they don’t necessarily care a whole lot about anybody else. That may sound a little harsh, but I think that’s kind of the reality. So I wish him well.”

Polls paint a difficult picture for Cruz

Even if Cruz still has presidential ambitions, recent polling suggests he would face significant challenges if the Republican nomination battle began today.

An Emerson College Polling survey conducted May 24 and 25 among 432 likely Republican primary voters found an almost dead-even contest at the top of the field. Vance received 35.5% support, while Rubio followed closely with 34.6%.

The remaining potential contenders trailed far behind. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis received 5.4%, while former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley stood at 4.6%.

A separate Overton Insights survey, conducted from May 16 through May 20 among 1,377 respondents, showed an even stronger performance for Vance. He led the field with 39%, while Rubio earned 32%.

Perhaps the most striking result for Cruz came in that survey, where he registered zero percent support among respondents.

Those numbers suggest that, at least for now, Republican voters are focusing far more on Vance and Rubio than on Cruz as they think about the party’s future leadership.

The polling also reflects how quickly the conversation around the post-Trump Republican Party has shifted, with newer national figures attracting greater early support.

Challenges extend beyond the Republican primary

The surveys also point to potential difficulties for Cruz in a general election setting.

According to a Public Sentiment Institute poll of 893 likely voters conducted May 21, former Vice President Kamala Harris defeated Cruz 46.1% to 38.5% in a hypothetical 2028 presidential matchup.

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg also finished ahead of Cruz, leading him 45.5% to 37.5%.

The same survey showed Harris and Buttigieg holding advantages over several other prominent Republicans as well, including Vance, Rubio and DeSantis, indicating that both parties could face competitive national races depending on who ultimately becomes their nominee.

For now, however, most Republican leaders remain focused on the 2026 midterm elections rather than the next presidential contest.

Vance has also indicated that any decision about his own political future is likely to wait until after November, leaving the Republican field officially unsettled despite growing speculation.

Still, Cornyn’s candid remark has once again placed Cruz’s long-discussed presidential ambitions back into the spotlight. Whether those ambitions eventually become another campaign remains unknown, but the early numbers suggest that if Cruz does enter the race, he would begin well behind two Republicans who are increasingly dominating conversations about the party’s future: J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio.