Texas Senate race takes dramatic turn as new polls show Ken Paxton reversing James Talarico’s earlier advantage in high-stakes showdown

Texas – The battle for one of the country’s most closely watched Senate seats has taken another unexpected turn, with new polling showing Republican nominee Ken Paxton moving back into the lead over Democratic challenger James Talarico after earlier surveys suggested the Democrat had the upper hand.

Fresh data released this week indicates that the race has tightened considerably, reflecting a shift in Republican unity following a bruising primary season and setting up what is expected to become one of the most expensive and fiercely contested elections of the 2026 cycle.

A new survey conducted by the University of Texas in partnership with the Texas Politics Project found Paxton leading Talarico by the slimmest of margins. The poll placed the Texas attorney general at 43% support, while Talarico received 42%. Libertarian candidate Ted Brown drew 3%, and another 10% of voters said they remained undecided.

The result marks a noticeable reversal from polling earlier this month that showed Talarico ahead by roughly three percentage points, fueling Democratic optimism that the party could finally compete statewide in Texas after decades of Republican dominance.

A second survey released this week pointed in the same direction.

Polling conducted by SoCal Strategies for the conservative outlet Red Eagle Politics gave Paxton a 49% to 47% advantage, with 4% of voters still undecided. That same pollster had previously found Talarico leading Paxton 42% to 34% in April, highlighting how dramatically the political landscape has shifted in just a few months.

Republicans rally behind Paxton after divisive primary

Much of the movement appears tied to what happened after the Republican primary.

Paxton secured the GOP nomination in May by defeating longtime Senator John Cornyn, ending the four-term senator’s bid for another six-year term. The contest changed dramatically after President Donald Trump endorsed Paxton, giving the attorney general a major boost with Republican voters.

The latest polling suggests many Republicans who were divided during the primary have now returned to support their party’s nominee.

According to the SoCal Strategies survey, Republican backing for Paxton climbed from 63% in April to 84% in June. During the same period, Talarico’s support among Republican voters dropped to just 5%.

That consolidation has helped erase the advantage Democrats previously enjoyed in statewide polling.

Still, Talarico continues to perform well with independent voters, a group viewed as essential to any Democratic path to victory in Texas.

The University of Texas survey found Talarico leading independents by a wide margin of 40% to 12%, while about one-third of independent voters have yet to make a final decision. The SoCal poll also showed the Democrat carrying independents comfortably and attracting roughly one-quarter of Republicans who backed Cornyn during the primary runoff.

At the same time, Republicans still appear to have room for additional gains because more GOP voters remain undecided than Democrats, suggesting Paxton could further strengthen his position as Election Day approaches.

Two very different campaigns

The general election has evolved into a clash between two candidates with sharply different political profiles.

Paxton, 63, enters the race as one of the best-known and most controversial Republican figures in Texas politics. Despite years of legal and political battles—including his impeachment by the Texas House in 2023 before being acquitted by the state Senate, as well as a securities fraud case that was resolved last year—he continues to enjoy strong support among the Republican base.

Throughout the campaign, Paxton has argued that Talarico, 37, is too liberal to represent Texas. He has criticized the Democratic lawmaker over comments involving transgender issues and has also claimed Talarico is vegan, despite reports indicating that is not the case.

Democrats have taken the opposite approach, repeatedly highlighting Paxton’s legal history and ethics controversies while portraying Talarico as a fresh alternative capable of attracting voters from across the political spectrum.

Earlier this month, Democrats received additional ammunition when one of Paxton’s former defense attorneys publicly endorsed Talarico, arguing that the attorney general should not be elevated to higher office.

A race drawing national attention

The Senate contest has already become one of the nation’s most expensive political battles, with record amounts spent during the primary alone. Both parties view the election as one that could shape the national political landscape.

Democrats have invested heavily in Talarico, believing he offers their strongest opportunity in years to end the Republican Party’s long statewide winning streak. Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, making the race especially significant for both sides.

Meanwhile, Republicans believe Paxton’s victory over Cornyn has energized their voters, though some within the party remain concerned that his polarizing image could keep the race closer than expected.

President Trump has remained firmly behind Paxton since endorsing him in the primary and has sharply criticized Talarico, describing him as the worst Texas candidate he has ever seen.

Political analysts continue to view Republicans as having the advantage. The Cook Political Report currently rates the Texas Senate seat as Lean Republican, but with millions of dollars expected to pour into the contest and a sizable bloc of undecided voters still in play, both campaigns face months of intense competition before Texans decide who will represent them in the U.S. Senate.